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12 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: Senior Japanese officials may have violated FX principles but sentiment is shifting – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that while senior Japanese government officials seemed to have violated the principles of market determined fx rates, in the past few days, they feel that there has been a shift in the rhetoric, away from providing guidance for the dollar-yen exchange rate.
However, they write, “What ought not to get lost in translation is that Japan's policy of reflation, dubbed Abenomics, has been effectively endorsed. After years of calling for Japan to take stronger action, it is difficult now to be critical of its policy.” The IMF and the US Treasury, through Brainard's comments yesterday, have seemed to offer positive endorsement for the stimulative policies. Indeed, theteam feel that it appears to have been Brainard's comments that prompted the late-US afternoon dollar spike to JPY94.50 (new highs for the move) and a level that has not been seen again. That said, they write, “New dollar and euro highs against the yen should be expected.”
However, they write, “What ought not to get lost in translation is that Japan's policy of reflation, dubbed Abenomics, has been effectively endorsed. After years of calling for Japan to take stronger action, it is difficult now to be critical of its policy.” The IMF and the US Treasury, through Brainard's comments yesterday, have seemed to offer positive endorsement for the stimulative policies. Indeed, theteam feel that it appears to have been Brainard's comments that prompted the late-US afternoon dollar spike to JPY94.50 (new highs for the move) and a level that has not been seen again. That said, they write, “New dollar and euro highs against the yen should be expected.”