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27 May 2014
USDJPY: Short‐term technicals mixed - Scotia
FXStreet (Bali) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, shares her view of the USD/JPY.
Key Quotes
"The BoJ meeting minutes (from April 30th) continue to suggest that CPI (less the consumption tax) is likely to average around 1.25% for sometime."
"However Ms. Shirai would have preferred pushing out the timing of reaching the 2% target from the middle of the projection period to end of the period; while Mr. Sato would have preferred highlighting downside inflation risks, adding some uncertainty and pushing out the timing of reaching the 2% target. Accordingly the minutes suggest a more dovish tilt than Governor Kuroda’s stance."
"This week April inflation will be the highlight. On the back of the consumption tax it is expected to jump up to 3.3%y/y on headline, 3.1%y/y ex fresh food and 2.2%y/y ex food and energy. We have made no change to our year‐end forecast of 109."
"USDJPY short‐term technicals: mixed as USDJPY sits stuck in a range of 100.74 to 104.13. For near‐term traders, the 200‐day MA is support at 101.33; while the 50‐day MA at 102.23 is resistance."
Key Quotes
"The BoJ meeting minutes (from April 30th) continue to suggest that CPI (less the consumption tax) is likely to average around 1.25% for sometime."
"However Ms. Shirai would have preferred pushing out the timing of reaching the 2% target from the middle of the projection period to end of the period; while Mr. Sato would have preferred highlighting downside inflation risks, adding some uncertainty and pushing out the timing of reaching the 2% target. Accordingly the minutes suggest a more dovish tilt than Governor Kuroda’s stance."
"This week April inflation will be the highlight. On the back of the consumption tax it is expected to jump up to 3.3%y/y on headline, 3.1%y/y ex fresh food and 2.2%y/y ex food and energy. We have made no change to our year‐end forecast of 109."
"USDJPY short‐term technicals: mixed as USDJPY sits stuck in a range of 100.74 to 104.13. For near‐term traders, the 200‐day MA is support at 101.33; while the 50‐day MA at 102.23 is resistance."