Balance of risks tilted towards a softer, longer Brexit – Goldman Sachs

Analysts at the US investment banking giant, Goldman Sachs, modify their probabilities of various Brexit outcomes following last week’s rejection of the UK PM May’s Withdrawal Agreement. 

Key Quotes:

Modified Brexit deal now seen at 45% versus previously seen at 50%.

No Brexit via second referendum seen at 40% versus previously seen at 35%.

No-deal Brexit seen at 15% versus unchanged from the previous.

"Risks around the timing of the ratification of that modified Brexit deal are now skewed towards a long Article 50 extension (of greater than one year) rather than a short extension (of fewer than three months). A long extension of this kind would require UK participation in elections to the European Parliament."