US: Signs of a slowdown - Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank point out that in the US, yesterday’s Beige Book saw more and more districts talking about signs of a slowdown.

Key Quotes

 “Outlooks generally remained positive, but many districts reported that contacts had become less optimistic in response to increased financial market volatility, rising short-term interest rates, falling energy prices, and elevated trade and political uncertainty.”

“An increasingly partisan and paranoid Washington on shutdown will not be cheered by the thought that our own Philip “There’s a Fed under every bed” Marey now argues that the housing market is slowing, previous monetary policy tightening will still act with a lag, and there is a 69% chance of a US recession in 2020. That should, perhaps, be enough for one to run screaming from USD. Except for the fact that everywhere else looks worse.”