Turkey: CBRT to hold, but risks to the upside - TDS

Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities, expects USDTRY to remain relatively unchanged if the CBRT leaves rates unchanged but delivers convincing hawkish language of tightening to come as we are looking for (post-announcement vol of 0.5-1% as the market reads the statement).

Key Quotes

“In terms of risks, a surprise hike could push USDTRY 1-3% lower, depending on its magnitude. While a hold accompanied by markedly less hawkish rhetoric would push USDTRY higher, with the 6.95/6.00 handle back in sight.”