EUR/PLN seen at 4.16 in a month’s view – Danske Bank

Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Jakob Christensen believes the cross could visit the 4.16 area in the near term.

Key Quotes

“The PLN has weakened over the past week. What is driving this? Not Polish macro releases, if anything they have been very strong over the past week: Gross wages (7.3% y/y), Industrial output (8.6% y/y), Construction output (34.7% y/y!), retail sales (8.2% y/y) all came out stronger than expectations”.

“The central bank keeps promoting a dovish stance with MPC member Lon out two days ago saying Zloty value ‘should be important factor for MPC decisions’. On the political front it is fairly quiet. Rather, external factors seem to be important. First the euro has weakened against the USD; typically the PLN then also weakens against the euro and global risk sentiment has been soft”.

“We think that our 1M EUR/PLN forecast is 4.16 is fair”.