USD: Global risk-off could overshadow an inconsequential jobs report - ING

Analysts at ING explain that from a rout in commodities – which wreaks of a 'Sell in May' effect – to what the successful House vote on the repeal of Obamacare overnight means for Trump’s tax reform proposals, one could easily see the plethora of current market themes overshadowing a fairly inconsequential US jobs report today.

Key Quotes

“Today’s data are, if anything, a risk to the dollar given that markets are pricing in an 80-90% chance of a June Fed rate hike. Indeed, the latest FOMC statement gave little in the way of certainty over this and Fed watchers will be aware that officials have tended to make up their minds in the few weeks preceding a meeting – with their decisions broadly dependent on the latest set of key data releases and financial conditions in global markets. A non-committal tone could be evident today, with six different Fed speakers on show including Fischer (1630 GMT) and Yellen (1830 GMT).”

“But, bar the odd short-term distortions around FOMC meetings – we think the $ will receive little uplift from the Fed story given that real US yields are likely to stay relatively flat. Our motto remains that this could be “as good as it gets” for the dollar.”