Euro area GDP and US FOMC amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

In view of the analysts at Danske Bank, Euro area Q1 GDP release and FOMC meeting in US will be the key market moving events for today’s session.

Key Quotes

“In the US, the FOMC meets today. This meeting is one of the small meetings (no updated projections and no press conference) and we do not expect any changes in monetary policy or any major changes in the statement.”

“In the euro area, the figures for Q1 GDP growth are due out. Throughout Q1, we observed strong activity indicators, with the PMIs and IFO climbing notably to levels not seen since 2010. Therefore, we estimate 0.4% quarterly growth for Q1.”

“This evening, we will also have the final TV debate between the two French presidential candidates Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Although Macron is still leading with a 20pp margin in the polls, the impact of the TV debate should not be underestimated in shifting voting intentions in favour of Le Pen in case of a convincing performance today.”

“Note that we are due to get ADP employment for April in the US today, which should give us a first impression of the shape of the labour market in April ahead of Friday's jobs report.”

“In the US, ISM non-manufacturing index is also due for release today.”

“EIA crude inventory data is due to be released today. The market will be positioned for a drop following the API report yesterday, which was said to show a 4.2mb drop in crude stocks last week.”