EUR crosses dumped on the open: exit polls show PM Renzi likely to lose today's referendum

EUR/USD has opened at the same time as the expit polls in the Italian constitutional referendum starting to come through.

EUR/USD dropped in a bearish gap to test below the 1.06 handle while exit polls now show, at time of writing, that the NO vote is in the lead at 56% to 60%.

EUR/USD: eyes on Italian constitutional referendum and more political risks for the euro

The euro crosses are also suffering, with EUR/JPY over a cent lower with a strong open for the yen on risk aversion given the negative implications and prospects that a No win would have for European politics. 

Italian referendum: PM Renzi likely to lose today's referendum, exit polls show

EUR/USD levels

Should the no vote win, Renzi had said he will resign and in doing so, this could be highly bearish for the euro and judging by the lack of the market's appetite for the euro at the open with a sharp drop below the 1.06 handle, the recent lows at 1.0520 (2016 lows) would be the next level to give out and open 1.0460, Feb 2015 lows. A surprise win for Renzi could see a sharp rally, taking advantage of the nervousness around long dollar that could be correcting ahead of the FOMC later this month. Upside has room to 1.0680 and 1.0744. 
 "It is not as clean of a bottoming pattern as the potential topping pattern in the Dollar Index, but a move above $1.0710-20 would likely point to a stronger euro recovery that could see $1.0800-$1.0850," argued analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.