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26 Apr 2016
US Elections: Super Tuesday in the offering - Rabobank
Stefan Koopman, Market Economist at Rabobank, suggests that today is yet another Super Tuesday as voters in the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will cast their ballots to vote for the Presidential Primaries.
Key Quotes
“All these states are part of the Northeast, a region in which Donald Trump is performing really well. The limited amount of polling information that is available suggests that he is expected to carry off the palm in all five states. The focus will, however, quickly shift to the race held in Indiana next week.
There are 172 delegates up for grabs today (out of 674 remaining) and a big win will bring Trump closer to the 1,237 delegates that he needs to avoid a contested convention. He has currently won 846 delegates, meaning that he is still 391 short of an absolute majority. Conversely, both Cruz (544) and Kasich (149) are already pursuing a mathematically lost cause because neither one of them can reach a majority anymore. This is also why Cruz and Kasich cut a deal yesterday to team up for a final effort that should, according to Kasich, lead to “an open convention in Cleveland, where a candidate capable of uniting the Party and winning in November will emerge as the nominee” (please note that after the first ballot in Cleveland, all delegates are free to make their own decisions).
Cruz will therefore now focus on the race in the pivotal winner-takes-all-Indiana, while Kasich will compete in Oregon and New Mexico. Unfortunately for both, there is no such thing as a conservatively moderate Ted Kasich, or a moderately conservative John Cruz for that matter. This makes it hard for Ted Cruz to convince Kasich-voters in Indiana that a vote for Cruz is a vote against Trump. But still, if he manages to do so, a volatile contested convention in Cleveland is becoming an increasingly likely possibility.”
Key Quotes
“All these states are part of the Northeast, a region in which Donald Trump is performing really well. The limited amount of polling information that is available suggests that he is expected to carry off the palm in all five states. The focus will, however, quickly shift to the race held in Indiana next week.
There are 172 delegates up for grabs today (out of 674 remaining) and a big win will bring Trump closer to the 1,237 delegates that he needs to avoid a contested convention. He has currently won 846 delegates, meaning that he is still 391 short of an absolute majority. Conversely, both Cruz (544) and Kasich (149) are already pursuing a mathematically lost cause because neither one of them can reach a majority anymore. This is also why Cruz and Kasich cut a deal yesterday to team up for a final effort that should, according to Kasich, lead to “an open convention in Cleveland, where a candidate capable of uniting the Party and winning in November will emerge as the nominee” (please note that after the first ballot in Cleveland, all delegates are free to make their own decisions).
Cruz will therefore now focus on the race in the pivotal winner-takes-all-Indiana, while Kasich will compete in Oregon and New Mexico. Unfortunately for both, there is no such thing as a conservatively moderate Ted Kasich, or a moderately conservative John Cruz for that matter. This makes it hard for Ted Cruz to convince Kasich-voters in Indiana that a vote for Cruz is a vote against Trump. But still, if he manages to do so, a volatile contested convention in Cleveland is becoming an increasingly likely possibility.”