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14 Dec 2015
EM's soft on FOMC implications - BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the EM starts the FOMC week off on a soft footing.
Key Quotes:
"Besides the prospects of Fed liftoff Wednesday, oil prices are making new cycle lows. Uncertainty about China’s FX policy is also making markets nervous, though we think this concern is misplaced. Overall, the global backdrop for EM remains very negative and we do not see much chance for a rebound after Fed lift-off is seen.
In recent days, USD has made new all-time highs against COP, MXN, and ZAR. Others are likely to follow suit in the coming weeks.
Within EM, the usual idiosyncratic risks remain in play.
ZAR has been a big mover (in both directions) due to Zuma’s handling of the Finance Minister portfolio, and we think investor confidence will be difficult to regain near-term. South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil are all subject to downgrades into sub-investment grade, with poor economic fundamentals compounding heightened political risk. "
Key Quotes:
"Besides the prospects of Fed liftoff Wednesday, oil prices are making new cycle lows. Uncertainty about China’s FX policy is also making markets nervous, though we think this concern is misplaced. Overall, the global backdrop for EM remains very negative and we do not see much chance for a rebound after Fed lift-off is seen.
In recent days, USD has made new all-time highs against COP, MXN, and ZAR. Others are likely to follow suit in the coming weeks.
Within EM, the usual idiosyncratic risks remain in play.
ZAR has been a big mover (in both directions) due to Zuma’s handling of the Finance Minister portfolio, and we think investor confidence will be difficult to regain near-term. South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil are all subject to downgrades into sub-investment grade, with poor economic fundamentals compounding heightened political risk. "