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3 Nov 2015
RBA not expected to cut, risk reward favours AUD dip buying - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac does not expect the RBA to cut rates today, noting that risk rewards continue to favour a buy on dips tactical approach.
Key Quotes
"The motivation for cutting would be a significant downward revision to the growth outlook, but in our view the data flow and the RBA’s recent commentary does not point to such an event."
"We expect the RBA will still hold its growth forecast for 2016 at 3% due to an expected lift in demand and the lagged impact from the fall in the AUD."
"The growth starting point is higher than we saw at the time of the RBA’s February rate cut. The November growth forecast for 2015 was 3% – bang on trend whereas the August forecast for growth in 2016 is 3% (now 0.25% above trend, since trend has been revised down)."
"Because most borrowers (Westpac has reported around 70% of its borrowers) are ahead on repayments the cash flow effect of the banks’ out-of-cycle mortgage rate increases will be muted."
"The major impact would be through confidence. The weekly Morgan/ ANZ Consumer Sentiment Index, which printed after all majors had raised rates hardly moved this week."
"The surprise drop in the inflation measure is not unique and, in the past, the Bank has looked through a one off number."
"The Fed sent a very strong signal that it will hike on December 17 and the RBA may wish to assess its impact on the currency rather than lead the way at a time that the multiplier for policy is muted."
Key Quotes
"The motivation for cutting would be a significant downward revision to the growth outlook, but in our view the data flow and the RBA’s recent commentary does not point to such an event."
"We expect the RBA will still hold its growth forecast for 2016 at 3% due to an expected lift in demand and the lagged impact from the fall in the AUD."
"The growth starting point is higher than we saw at the time of the RBA’s February rate cut. The November growth forecast for 2015 was 3% – bang on trend whereas the August forecast for growth in 2016 is 3% (now 0.25% above trend, since trend has been revised down)."
"Because most borrowers (Westpac has reported around 70% of its borrowers) are ahead on repayments the cash flow effect of the banks’ out-of-cycle mortgage rate increases will be muted."
"The major impact would be through confidence. The weekly Morgan/ ANZ Consumer Sentiment Index, which printed after all majors had raised rates hardly moved this week."
"The surprise drop in the inflation measure is not unique and, in the past, the Bank has looked through a one off number."
"The Fed sent a very strong signal that it will hike on December 17 and the RBA may wish to assess its impact on the currency rather than lead the way at a time that the multiplier for policy is muted."