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17 Sep 2013
RBA minutes next: Impact on the AUD/USD
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia September 3 meeting are due at 0130GMT.
The fact that the RBA omitted 'the easing line' from its last monetary policy statement on Sept 3, makes today's minutes an event worth following for further clues on the central bank's current stance towards its rate settings.
Comparison Aug statement vs Sept
August: "The Board has previously noted that the inflation outlook could provide some scope to ease policy further, should that be required to support demand. At today's meeting, and taking account of recent information on prices and activity, the Board judged that a further decline in the cash rate was appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the inflation target over time."
September: "At today's meeting, the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."
What to expect today?
According to Eamonn Sheridan, lead Asian Editor at Forexlive: "Given the RBA wants the AUD to fall further the likelihood is the minutes of the September meeting will have a little more of an easing bias, which may raise the probability of a November rate cut. An October rate cut does not seem likely." The cleaning of orders above 0.9350 on Monday, in view of Sheridan, makes the short trade even more appealing should an increase in easing bias be seen in today's RBA.
Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, was quoted earlier saying that "the RBA is still not neutral and that an easing bias of some degree will be evident in the minutes." Callow foresees a minor retracement in the AUD/USD.
The fact that the RBA omitted 'the easing line' from its last monetary policy statement on Sept 3, makes today's minutes an event worth following for further clues on the central bank's current stance towards its rate settings.
Comparison Aug statement vs Sept
August: "The Board has previously noted that the inflation outlook could provide some scope to ease policy further, should that be required to support demand. At today's meeting, and taking account of recent information on prices and activity, the Board judged that a further decline in the cash rate was appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the inflation target over time."
September: "At today's meeting, the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."
What to expect today?
According to Eamonn Sheridan, lead Asian Editor at Forexlive: "Given the RBA wants the AUD to fall further the likelihood is the minutes of the September meeting will have a little more of an easing bias, which may raise the probability of a November rate cut. An October rate cut does not seem likely." The cleaning of orders above 0.9350 on Monday, in view of Sheridan, makes the short trade even more appealing should an increase in easing bias be seen in today's RBA.
Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, was quoted earlier saying that "the RBA is still not neutral and that an easing bias of some degree will be evident in the minutes." Callow foresees a minor retracement in the AUD/USD.