Back
29 May 2015
USD remains a buy – Societe Generale
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Kit Juckes at Societe Generale recommends a long position in the US dollar.
Key Quotes
“The dollar remains a buy, even if the bet risk-reward isn't to buy it against the euro”.
“Too many shorts and the odds do favour a cliche-satisfying last-ditch move to come back from the Greek abyss and kick the can a few yards further down the mule-track”.
“So we would rather be long USD against CAD, AUD, NZD, JPY and GBP instead”.
“If I had to dream up a single gauge to guesstimate when and where the dollar will peak, I'd go for 5-year TIIPS yields”.
“One measure is a bonkers idea but I reckon the dollar peaks after TIIPS yields, and at -6bp, they surely aren't at their highs”.
“I'll guess a further 1% rise in those, and I'll have a stab at H1 2016 for timing. That should give the dollar a further 5-10% rally, assuming ECB QE last till Q3 2016 and the BOJ goes on printing into next year too”.
Key Quotes
“The dollar remains a buy, even if the bet risk-reward isn't to buy it against the euro”.
“Too many shorts and the odds do favour a cliche-satisfying last-ditch move to come back from the Greek abyss and kick the can a few yards further down the mule-track”.
“So we would rather be long USD against CAD, AUD, NZD, JPY and GBP instead”.
“If I had to dream up a single gauge to guesstimate when and where the dollar will peak, I'd go for 5-year TIIPS yields”.
“One measure is a bonkers idea but I reckon the dollar peaks after TIIPS yields, and at -6bp, they surely aren't at their highs”.
“I'll guess a further 1% rise in those, and I'll have a stab at H1 2016 for timing. That should give the dollar a further 5-10% rally, assuming ECB QE last till Q3 2016 and the BOJ goes on printing into next year too”.