Upside risks in the near term for USD/SEK and EUR/SEK – ING

The Swedish Krona has been a big outlier since the start of the week. Economists at ING analyze SEK’s outlook.

Riksbank propping Krona?

We saw two sharp drops in USD/SEK and EUR/SEK in the past two sessions shortly after 09:00 GMT in Monday’s and Tuesday’s sessions. We’ll be on the lookout today for a similar move around that time today, as that may be a signal that the Riksbank is conducting its daily sales operations around that morning timeslot.

The Riksbank stressed this is not FX intervention or a monetary policy tool but mere risk management. The lack of transparency around the amount of weekly sales means the Bank can sell larger amounts at higher USD/SEK and EUR/SEK levels and then justify this as a mere loss-minimisation approach (buying more SEK when it is cheaper).

We still point at some upside risks in the near term for USD/SEK and EUR/SEK, especially once markets adjust to the Riksbank being present in the FX market, although now there is definitely value in holding SEK against other high beta pro-cyclical currencies like NOK.