Dollar to weaken once the dust settles – SocGen

Dollar is probing November 2022 highs after tenth successively weekly gain. Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes Greenback’s outlook.

US to slip into recession in 2024

Shutdown and downgrade concerns, month and quarter-end, talk of the US economy growing forever and forcing the Fed to do more and inflation worries have all been cited as reasons for the latest lurch higher in US yields, but I’ll go on favouring the need to offer higher yields to attract sufficient money to finance an endless stream of Treasury auctions. 

The world must reallocate more of its capital to US bonds, and higher yields do the work, which then results in a stronger Dollar as more money either stays in the US or is attracted from abroad. This will provide the conditions for the US to slip into recession in 2024 and for the Dollar to weaken once the dust settles. In the meantime, the data are robust, and the Dollar is strong.