Path to additional USD strength via yield differentials to be choppy and perhaps somewhat limited – Scotiabank

The USD is trading mixed, but off earlier highs in broad terms on the day. Economists at Scotiabank discuss the greenback outlook.

Hawkish ECB comments

Markets were pricing in around 17 bps for Fed tightening for this month – until comments from Jefferson and Harker (both voters) supported the Fed ‘skipping’ a hike at the upcoming meeting, dumping pricing back to 8 bps; Jul pricing still reflects around 80% probability of a 25 bps hike. And this morning, ECB officials have downplayed signs of softer core inflation and persisted with messaging that rates will move higher still in the coming months. 

While short-term spreads have moved incrementally in support of recent USD gains (note elevated correlations with spreads for USD/JPY, EUR/USD and USD/CAD especially) the path to additional USD strength via yield differentials is likely to be choppy and perhaps somewhat limited.