USD/JPY could hang around 135/137 through March, turning back lower in H2 – ING

Economists at ING update their USD/JPY forecast for the coming months. The pair could remain elevated near term, but a reversal lower is expected by the second half of the year.

Bank of Japan event risks loom large

“US 10-year Treasury yields were dragged 60 bps higher in February. We see outside risk to 4.25% over the coming weeks, but the year-end target is 3.00%. That should be bearish for USD/JPY – but more a story for later in the second quarter and through the second half of the year.”

“USD/JPY could hang around these 135/137 levels through March, with outside risk to 140 if the Fed is very hawkish.”

“Outgoing BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda holds his last policy meeting on 10 March. Incoming BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda holds his first policy meeting on 28 April. Both could pose positive event risks for the Japanese Yen.”

“USD/JPY – 1M 135.00 3M 130.00 6M 125.00 12M 120.00”